Comment Analysis · Docket FS-2025-0001

FS-2025-0001-611492

Opposes rescissionA1 strongSubstance 14/24Owed an answerPosted October 7, 2026 On Regulations.gov

In short: The comment establishes that the DEIS's conclusion that new roads have a small or insignificant impact on fire occurrence is unsupported by the record because it contradicts the DEIS's own cited data on human-caused ignition rates and fails to apply the provided Figure 15 ignition-density-by-road-distance data to quantify the effects of new road construction.

Scored directly — The comment's whole text was scored on its own.

Scorecard

Each dimension is scored 0–3; the eight sum to the substance score out of 24.

Specific placeNames a specific location — from a region down to an exact creek, trail, road, or map reference.
Local knowledgeDraws on a first-hand connection to the place — visits, sustained activity, occupation, or a professional role.
EA analysisEngages the agency's environmental analysis directly.
Analytical gapIdentifies something the analysis fails to address.
EvidenceBacks claims with specific facts, data, or research.
RequestMakes a specific, actionable request of the agency.
AlternativeProposes a different course of action.
LegalCites statutes, regulations, or legal obligations.

How hard it is to set aside

A1 strong: Must be answered — it names the law.

Owed an answer on Analytical gap, Legal.

Standard dismissals it defeats

Already addressed The agency says its analysis already covers the point. Defeated when the comment cites the law itself: there is no analysis to cite against a statutory claim.
Misreads the proposal The agency says the comment misunderstands what is proposed. Defeated when the comment engages the proposal or a named place directly.
No cause and effect shown The agency says the comment asserts a harm without showing how the action causes it. Defeated when the comment shows the mechanism.
Outside the scope The agency says the comment asks about a different action. Defeated when the comment is specific and tied to this proposal.
Certified not substantive The agency certifies the comment raises nothing substantive. Defeated when the comment alleges illegality, which is substantive by the definition the certification runs on.

Still open to the agency

Alternative already eliminated The agency says it considered and eliminated the alternative the comment proposes, with a reason. Cannot be defeated from the comment text alone.
Deferred to a later decision The agency says the point belongs to a later, site-specific decision. Cannot be defeated from the comment text alone.
Not required The agency says the analysis the comment asks for is not required. Cannot be defeated from the comment text alone.
Preference noted The agency notes the comment as a statement of preference and takes no action on it. Cannot be defeated from the comment text alone.

Topics

Forest Management Wildfire
- “human caused ignitions increase in abundance with proximity to roads”
- “road density is linked to human-caused wildfires”
- “net impact of new roads on fire occurrence is likely small or insignificant”
- “apply the Figure 15 ignition-density-by-road-distance relationship”
Legal Regulatory Framework
- “not supported by the record before the agency”
- “does not satisfy reasoned decisionmaking”
- “challenge to the sufficiency of the agency's explanation under 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A)”
- “request that the Forest Service supplement the wildfire occurrence effects analysis under 7 CFR 1b.7(f)(2)(iii)”
Environmental Protection Biodiversity
- “keep the amazing piece of policy, the roadless rule, live and enforced”
- “connected to desolation wilderness in the Tahoe basin”
- “encourage sustainable practices, not allow devastation in our birthright”
- “less secure climate, resulting in more wildfires”

What it names

Law cited: 284 F.3d 1062 463 U.S. 29 7 CFR 1b
Works cited: Balch et al. 2017Cardille et al. 2001Chen and Jin 2022Narayanaraj and Wimberly 2012Parisien et al. 2016

The comment

Shaded passages are the ones the analysis quoted as evidence for a dimension: Specific placeLocal knowledgeEA analysisAnalytical gapEvidenceRequestLegal

Please keep the amazing piece of policy, the roadless rule, live and enforced. America is its land, and it's people. I am connected to desolation wilderness in the Tahoe basin. Increased devistation will only result in a less secure climate, resulting in more wildfires and harm done to innocent families that garner no benefit from the destruction and increase to shareholder value. My name is Nathaniel Griffin and I will only suffer if this rule is removed. We must encourage sustainable practices, not allow devastation in our birthright. Thank you Unsupported and Uncited Conclusion That New Roads Have No Material Effect on IRA Wildfire Ignition Rates The DEIS establishes the mechanism itself. At p. 98 it states that "human caused ignitions increase in abundance with proximity to roads, supporting the notion that roads facilitate human access, which can in turn result in more human caused fires," citing Narayanaraj and Wimberly 2012, Parisien et al. 2016, Balch et al. 2017, and Chen and Jin 2022. At p. 109 it states that "[r]oad density is linked to human-caused wildfires, and as the density of roads increases so does the probability, number, and frequency of wildfire ignitions (Cardille et al. 2001)." Every one of these sources is in the DEIS's own bibliography. The DEIS also quantifies the differential, and the relevant figure is not the one most often quoted. Table 18 (p. 95) reports all-cause ignition density of 42 fires per million acres per year on other NFS lands against 12 in potentially affected IRAs. Table 21 (p. 98) decomposes that figure by cause: human-caused ignition density is 22.4 against 3.0 — a factor of 7.5 — while the natural-ignition rates are far closer at 16.8 against 8.5. The differential the DEIS attributes to roads is therefore the human-caused component, and it is more than twice the size the all-cause comparison suggests. Notwithstanding these findings, the DEIS concludes at p. 113 that "the net impact of new roads on fire occurrence is likely small or insignificant, given the potential for improved response times and increased initial attack success." No source is cited for that conclusion, and no estimate of the ignition increase appears anywhere in the effects analysis for either action alternative. Its two supporting assumptions are unquantified and uncommitted. At p. 109 the DEIS reasons that "not all roads constructed under alternative 2 would be open for public access. Therefore, increased human ignitions do not necessarily follow from increased road construction." At p. 113 it states that "public access to roads constructed or improved under alternatives 2 and 3 can be limited to minimize fire hazard in high-risk areas." Neither alternative commits to any level of access restriction, no proportion of closed roads is estimated, no basis is given for expecting any particular proportion, and the rescission itself transfers that decision to local responsible officials. The analysis thus supplies the mitigating assumption while the rule removes the national requirement that would deliver it. The DEIS states the method for closing this gap and does not perform it. At p. 109: "As discussed in Wildfire Occurrence, past fire occurrence information on NFS lands, inventoried roadless areas, and wilderness can be used to evaluate the potential effects of new road construction." The necessary input is already in the document. Figure 15 (p. 98), "Density of reported ignitions by distance to roads and cause within the potentially affected IRAs," is the ignition-to-road-distance gradient measured inside the affected area itself. Figure 15 appears in the body of the DEIS once, as that caption. No text discusses it and no effects analysis applies it. Because the DEIS announces this analysis, presents the data for it, and then substitutes an uncited qualitative conclusion that runs against its own cited sources, its effects finding for wildfire occurrence is not supported by the record before the agency. An explanation that runs counter to the evidence before the agency does not satisfy reasoned decisionmaking. Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass'n v. State Farm Mut. Auto. Ins. Co., 463 U.S. 29, 43 (1983); see also Kern v. Bureau of Land Management, 284 F.3d 1062 (9th Cir. 2002) (programmatic EIS may not defer analysis of an effect that is properly assessed at the programmatic scale). This is a challenge to the sufficiency of the agency's explanation under 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A), not to the scope or depth of analysis the agency selected. I request that the Forest Service supplement the wildfire occurrence effects analysis under 7 CFR 1b.7(f)(2)(iii) to: (1) apply the Figure 15 ignition-density-by-road-distance relationship, together with the human-caused ignition rates in Table 21, to estimate the change in ignition density within potentially affected IRAs under alternatives 2 and 3 at a stated level of new road construction; (2) state the proportion of ne